HOLLYWOOD + World Cinema Thread

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2nd one

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Men in black 3

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Sherlock homes 2

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Weekend Report: Dissapointing Debuts From 'Sherlock,' 'Alvin' Sequels

by Ray Subers
Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows

December 18, 2011

While franchise titles did claim the top three spots at the box office this weekend, it wound up being a very mixed frame for sequels. Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows and Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked both tallied solid grosses, though they were notably down from their predecessors. On the other hand, Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol had a robust start in limited release. Even with all of these established brands entering the marketplace, the Top 12 wound up down roughly 13 percent from the same period last year.

Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows opened to an estimated $40.02 million, which is way down from the original Sherlock Holmes's $62.3 million over Christmas weekend in 2009. In what could be an even more concerning comparison, the movie wound up lower than Tron Legacy's $44 million start at the same time last year. That's shocking, considering Game of Shadows opened just two years after a well-received original while Tron hit theaters 28 years after a first movie that wasn't even widely available on DVD or Blu-ray until after Legacy's release. Distributor Warner Bros. Pictures is reporting that the audience was 59 percent male and 50 percent under the age of 35, and that it received an "A-" CinemaScore.

Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked debuted to an estimated $23.5 million, or less than half of The Squeakquel's $48.9 million. It was also significantly off from the first Alvin's $44.3 million. Distributor 20th Century Fox reports that the audience was 54 percent female and 53 percent under the age of 25. The movie earned a "B+" CinemaScore.

Both Sherlock and Alvin struggled to live up to franchise standards this weekend, albeit for different reasons. The marketing for Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows never sufficiently differentiated the movie from its predecessor. While the ads did often briefly mention Holmes's conflict with Professor Moriarty, the focus was mainly put on the slow-motion action and Holmes-Watson banter that were trademarks of the first movie. While that movie is generally well-liked, it probably doesn't have the sort of rabid fan base that will eagerly turn out for more of same, which seemed to bear out this weekend.

In comparison, 20th Century Fox did a great job showing that Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked had a unique premise (the Chipmunks get stranded on a desert island) in comparison to the first two movies. Regardless of how interesting the premise is, though, the Alvin and the Chipmunks series probably isn't looked upon fondly by most adults. While usually this wouldn't be a huge problem, the generally poor performance of family movies lately indicates that parents are probably being far more judicious in deciding what movies they will take their children to.

Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol was the one bright spot at the box office this weekend. Opening at just 425 locations, Ghost Protocol earned an estimated $13 million for an impressive per-theater average of $30,588. That tops Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason ($8.7 million) for highest-grossing limited debut ever (fewer than 600 theaters). Ghost Protocol's 300 IMAX locations contributed an estimated $11 million, and it's $36,667 average was slightly better than that of Inception ($36,54 or Fast Five ($32,787). Of course both of those movies were in nationwide and IMAX release simultaneously, though it still serves to highlight the strong numbers from the fourth Mission: Impossible movie.

By releasing the movie five days early in IMAX and consistently pushing the format's immersive benefits, distributor Paramount Pictures managed to at least initially turn Ghost Protocol in to an event movie that demands to be seen on the big screen. It probably didn't hurt that a six-minute prologue for The Dark Knight Rises was attached at around 42 locations, though that also isn't a large-enough sample to solely account for the above-average performance. It's tough to say for sure if Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol's success will continue when it makes its nationwide expansion on Wednesday, but for the time being the movie appears to be in very good shape.

Last weekend's leaders didn't fare too well in their second outing. New Year's Eve dropped 43 percent to an estimated $7.4 million for a 10-day total of $24.8 million, while The Sitter plummeted 55 percent to $4.4 million for a total of $17.7 million.

After a decent week in limited release, Young Adult expanded to 986 locations and earned an estimated $3.65 million. That's not a very encouraging figure, but Young Adult also isn't the type of movie that's designed to open big anyway. A solid long-run target now looks to be director Jason Reitman's first movie, Thank You for Smoking, which wound up with $24.8 million in 2006.

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Mixed Bag for 2011 Sequels

by Ray Subers
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

December 14, 2011

With Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows, Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked and Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol hitting theaters this weekend, it seemed like a logical time to take a look back at the year in sequels. And the results aren't pretty, at least at the domestic box office.

First, it's important to clarify the methodology being used. In order to normalize the data a bit, prequels, reboots, indirect continuations of franchises (Muppets and Winnie the Pooh, for example), and sequels to movies older than 20 years are being excluded from the study. For Happy Feet Two and The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1, domestic final grosses are being estimated at $75 million and $290 million, respectively, based on historical comparisons. However, with scattered and incomplete foreign runs, these two movies are being left off any international computations; in addition, movies that do not have significant foreign grosses (Madea, Harold & Kumar) are also being left off. Finally, movies that are numerical sequels but wind up being prequels (Paranormal Activity 3 and one other movie that will remain unmentioned due to potential spoilers), are being included. That leaves 16 sequels domestically* and 12 internationally for this specific study.

So far in 2011, sequels are down an average of 16 percent at the domestic box office. This represents a noteworthy decrease from 2010, when sequels were off seven percent, and 2009, when sequels were actually up four percent. Out of the 16 sequels, only two improved on their predecessors: Fast Five was up 33.5 percent from Fast and Furious, while Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 improved 29.2 percent. The biggest losers were Spy Kids: All the Time in the World (off 65 percent), Happy Feet Two (projected to be down around 62 percent) and Scream 4 (down 57 percent).

Even with nearly across-the-board declines, high-profile sequels were so prevalent this year that the current Top Seven movies of 2011 are all sequels, and that could possibly extent to the Top Nine with Sherlock Holmes and Alvin and the Chipmunks. That hasn't been good for overall box office, though, as year-to-date grosses are down over four percent from last year.

It's a completely different story at the international box office. The 12 movies tracked improved a massive 40 percent over their predecessors on the foreign circuit. That's up from an 18 percent gain in 2010 and a 12 percent gain in 2009. Adding domestic and foreign together for a worldwide figure, sequels were up nearly 18 percent in 2011 compared to just seven percent in 2010 and eight percent in 2009.

It's easy to look at the worldwide gains and conclude that sequels continue to be a worthwhile pursuit. It's important to remember, though, that studios ultimately take home only around 45 percent of foreign earnings compared to 55 percent of domestic earnings, which means the shift towards international box office isn't necessarily adding to the bottom line.

There are a handful of other interesting statistics related to 2011 sequels. Those that were released within three years of their predecessors were down only six percent domestically, while those released later than that were off an average of 45 percent. The lesson here is that at least as far as box office is concerned, it's better to get a sequel out as soon as possible.

Contrary to the negative narrative regarding 3D, the addition of the format didn't seem to have a major impact. Movies that added 3D fell 15 percent domestically (compared to 16 percent among all titles) and were up 42 percent internationally (compared to 40 percent overall).

Finally, family sequels got crushed in 2011. Out of the five movies tracked (Cars 2, Kung Fu Panda 2, Happy Feet Two, Diary of a Wimpy Kid 2 and Spy Kids 4), domestic box office was down an average of 37 percent. This seems to indicate that perhaps parents aren't interested in paying for an expensive night out when they can just queue up a previous installment at home for fairly cheap.

There's a chance that the declining popularity of sequels on the homefront is going to cause studios to consider scaling back the franchise fare a bit in the future. It's too late for 2012, though, as at least 20 direct sequels are already on the schedule. That includes eagerly-anticipated sure-fire hits like The Dark Knight Rises and The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 along with head-scratchers like G.I. Joe: Retaliation, Wrath of the Titans and Ghost Rider Spirit of Vengeance.

*List of 2011 sequels included: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, Transformers: Dark of the Moon, The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1, The Hangover Part II, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, Fast Five, Cars 2, Kung Fu Panda 2, Happy Feet Two, Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules, Tyler Perry's Madea's Big Happy Family, Final Destination 5, Scream 4, Spy Kids: All the Time in the World, Big Mommas: Like Father, Like Son, A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Christmas

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