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The Man Who Never Stops To Amaze Me - MAMMOOTTY !!!
Is Bollywood Really a ‘Religion’?
Posted on November 6, 2013 by Shailesh Kapoor
There are many stereotypes that have stayed in the film industry over years. The one about not releasing a film in ‘shraadhs’ stands out as outdated in particular. With release windows becoming an increasing challenge, every opportunity needs to be ceased. And the young theatre-going population don’t have ‘shraadhs’ on their mind for sure. (Besharam opened at a huge 19.5 cr during the shraadh period).
Another untested stereotype was about not releasing a film pre-Diwali, defined as the 3-4 day period leading up to to the big festival. There has been no precedent over the last decade at least. So when Rakesh Roshan chose a pre-Diwali release for Krrish 3, we were dealing with untested waters. In Ormax Media’s forecast model (FBO), the performance of the campaign suggested that if Krrish 3 released on a normal Friday (not a holiday), it would have clocked Rs. 29.5 cr on its opening day, within striking distance of the Day 1 record, on which the top two positions are held by holiday releases. (Krrish 3 went on to break that record on its fourth day, of course).
In reality, Krrish 3 did 18.8 cr on its first day (I know sources suggest 25, but we all know how it works these days, don’t we? And like always, we don’t count dubbed versions for fair comparison). So that’s nearly an 11 cr (or 35%) deficit explained by “pre-Diwali”!
Which brings me to the point. Bollywood and Cricket have been called the two religions of India, ad nauseam. The cricket part even has a God now, and next week shall be a real demonstration of it all. But Bollywood?
Religion is the opium of the masses, it’s said. Bollywood may fall short on both the criteria here – the opium and the masses. Let’s look at the opium part first. It refers to addiction that’s so strong that it blinds your senses and judgment. Surely, a lot of people were in their sense on November 1 when they chose Diwali prep over watching Krrish 3, which they would eventually watch later in the week to give it that record fourth day.
Now that’s not addiction. It’s convenience. When a religious festival takes precedence over the biggest release of the year, you know where the ‘religion’ part actually is. The Krrish 3 example reconfirms what we may intuitively know. That films are only entertainment at the end of it all. They do not have any strong social, emotional or patriotic overtones, even though the act of movie-going itself is highly social in nature today.
If Bollywood would have truly been a religion, more ‘devotees’ would have found the time to watch Krrish 3 the day it released. It would not have been Priority 2, 3 & 4 for so many of them.
The ‘masses’ part is generally better understood by now. It is popular knowledge that only a handful of Indians go to theatres. As a latest perspective, about 23 million Indians watched Chennai Express in a theatre over its box office life-time, while its TV premiere got viewership of about 60 million, if TAM covered India better. But religion is not about watching films for free in the comfort of your living rooms, is it?
For me, “Bollywood is a religion” is a media-created idea, that has been fuelled by film fans over generations now. It has been a subject of great interest for me to actually “size” this fans segment. And in one such attempt, I discovered that only 11% of film-viewing population of India (including those who watch on TV) are true fans, defined as those who consider films as an indispensable, uncompromisable part of their lives. For the other 89%, as they say in India, “meri hobby hai”.
If you are reading this, chances are that you are a part of the 11% and not the 89%. Which is where the myth gets fuelled further. Get the point?
I’m a part of the 11% myself. It’s taken me a while to understand, and rather reluctantly accept, that the 89% indeed exists.
http://shaileshkapoor.com/2013/11/06...ly-a-religion/
The Man Who Never Stops To Amaze Me - MAMMOOTTY !!!
300 Cr: Ready To Be Breached!
Posted on October 27, 2013 by Shailesh Kapoor
If not Krrish 3, then Dhoom 3. If not Dhoom 3, then PK. But it’s only a matter of time that a new Hindi film crosses the 300 cr nett mark at the domestic box office. 3 Idiots breached the 200 cr mark almost four years ago. The domestic box office business has grown by more than 100% since then. If 3 Idiots released this December, it would have comfortably crossed 300 cr, if not 350.
If the market is indeed ready, why has no other film managed to do achieve this feat yet? Simply because nothing else has come even remotely close to 3 Idiots in terms of audience appreciation. The films that scored high on Word Of Mouth (WOM) in the last two years have been somewhat ‘alternative’ films like Bhaag Milkha Bhaag, Aashiqui 2, Kahaani and Barfi. To cross 300cr, you need a 20-25 cr opening day (at least) and a WOM of 75+ (3 Idiots was 90, Chennai Express 60).
None of the big openers in recent times have managed to cross a WOM of 70. The gap between the WOM of 3 Idiots and the likes of Dabangg 2, Ek Tha Tiger, Chennai Express and Yeh Jawani Hai Deewani is wide enough to create a 100 cr divide in today’s times.
The ‘masala entertainer’ genre has officially died with the poor performance of Boss. Salman Khan will see it through with Jai Ho and Kick, where he will hope to cross the 200-mark for the first time. But even he is shifting genres with Sooraj Barjatya’s film. Even the best masala entertainers cannot score 75+ on WOM, simply because they don’t engage well with the female audiences (and hence the families) and have little repeat (or lingering) value. Even Dabangg, arguably the best in the genre, touched only 66 on WOM.
That leaves us with three strong candidates for 300 cr – Krrish 3, Dhoom 3 and PK. All three will comfortably open above 20 cr, with 25+ being a distinct possibility for all of them. So, the first barrier is crossed. While not much is known about PK, all three should be ‘family-inclusive films’, though Dhoom 3′s appeal is relatively more youth-centric.
Now that leaves us with just one condition – content that’s worthy of strong Word of Mouth and repeat value. For repeat value, one would need sufficient sprinkling of emotional content, which Dhoom 3 is unlikely to offer. In Krrish 3, presence of emotional content is certain, but if the action overpowers it, the impact may be muted.
So, if I had to pick one of the three, I’d pick PK, based purely on the strength of its director’s past work. A non-festive release is the only deterrent, but 3 Idiots showed how a strong WOM film can keep going for weeks. But I’m certainly not ruling out Krrish 3 and Dhoom 3 at this stage. In five days time, there will be enough evidence to take a more informed view on one of them.
Like I have always said, 300 cr means less than 3 cr theatre footfalls. In a country of 130 cr people, that’s a minuscule base in an industry that’s called a religion. Let’s get over and done with 300 cr soon, so that we can start thinking about the next milestone: 400 cr.
http://shaileshkapoor.com/2013/10/27...o-be-breached/
The Man Who Never Stops To Amaze Me - MAMMOOTTY !!!
coming soon
15-11-2013 Ram Leela
15-11-2013 Rajjo
22-11-2013 Gori Tere Pyaar Mein
22-11-2013 Singh Saab The Great
29-11-2013 Bullett Raja
06-12-2013 Kaanchi
06-12-2013 R… Rajkumar
12-12-2013 Kochadaiiyaan
13-12-2013 Mumbai 125 KM
13-12-2013 Kill The Rapist
മേരേ പ്യാരേ...ദേശ് വാസിയോം...യോം...യോം ..യോം ........
The Man Who Never Stops To Amaze Me - MAMMOOTTY !!!